Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab1…638b crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$35
other 25% +$18
sports 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -14.1% -22.2% 56% 27% -13.2%
≤30d 70 -14.1% -22.2% 56% 27% -13.2%
≤90d 70 -14.1% -22.2% 56% 27% -13.2%
all 70 -14.1% -22.2% 56% 27% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 27% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 17% -21.5%
15% -36.5% 13% -29.1%
20% -42.7% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 27¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -77%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 17m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $1 38m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $1 49m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $1 49m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.32 · official $7.32 (match) · 220 history records