Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab0…06fd weather 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-13%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$11
economics 40% −$6
weather 13% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -22.5%
≤30d 5 -10.4% -18.9% 0% 0% -22.5%
≤90d 5 -10.4% -18.9% 0% 0% -22.5%
all 5 -10.4% -18.9% 0% 0% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -22.5%
10% -26.7% 0% -29.9%
15% -33.8% 0% -36.7%
20% -40.3% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage24d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Jun 24 $49 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 23 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 22 $57 −$11 -19%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL No 68¢ $43 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc BUY No 76¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 59¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 59¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 70¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $7 40h
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL No 14¢ $14 41h
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL No 15¢ $32 44h
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $10 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $9 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $9 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $0 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $9 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $9 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $7 8d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 18¢ $4 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 10¢ $1 24d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records