Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6A 0x6aaf…8a0a other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$300
other 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -76.0%
≤30d 4 -74.0% -76.4% 25% 0% -76.3%
≤90d 4 -74.0% -76.4% 25% 0% -76.3%
all 4 -74.0% -76.4% 25% 0% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.4% 0% -76.3%
10% -78.7% 0% -78.6%
15% -80.8% 0% -80.7%
20% -82.6% 0% -82.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$102 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $102 +$4 +4%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 24¢ $107 1h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 22¢ $110 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $194 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records