Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6aae…91c6 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$597 (-30%) realized −$614 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$76
other 32% +$144
crypto 23% −$453
politics 8% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% +28.5%
≤30d 5 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% +28.5%
≤90d 5 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% +28.5%
all 17 -47.1% -52.2% 29% 24% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 24% -30.5%
10% -56.8% 24% -37.1%
15% -60.9% 24% -43.2%
20% -64.8% 24% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$69 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$614
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage222d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$147 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 +$52 +101%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14? Nov 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11? Nov 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $100 +$68 +68%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 11? Nov 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 11? Nov 10 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $174 +$8 +5%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $305 +$176 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 216d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 217d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 217d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 219d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 219d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? SELL Yes 96¢ $168 219d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Packers 44¢ $50 219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 11? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 219d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 220d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $481 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 40¢ $5 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $100 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 1¢ $10 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 57¢ $100 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $10 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 5¢ $50 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $182 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.19 · official $316.86 (match) · 42 history records