Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6aaa…e611 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,614 (+53%) realized +$1,707 · open −$93
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$173
14 days−$101
30 days+$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.2% -1.2% 36% 27% +16.2%
≤30d 28 +47.5% +33.4% 54% 50% +32.2%
≤90d 40 +44.0% +30.3% 60% 50% +38.6%
all 40 +44.0% +30.3% 60% 50% +38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 50% +38.6%
10% +17.8% 50% +25.3%
15% +6.4% 45% +13.2%
20% -4.0% 40% +2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$40 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,707
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage37d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Acend 40¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $95 −$6 -7%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $38 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Jun 28 $45 −$12 -26%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $3 −$2 -67%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $23 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 26 $38 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $126 +$72 +57%
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo Jun 25 $91 +$35 +38%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $43 +$90 +209%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $106 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $171 −$171 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $16 +$6 +41%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $252 +$338 +134%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$4 +29%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs OLDBOYS- - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $104 +$83 +79%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $97 +$66 +68%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $159 +$248 +156%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $289 +$262 +90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $1 +$5 +388%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $16 +$35 +216%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $152 +$279 +184%
Valorant: Team Evictix vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 01 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 01 $43 +$190 +442%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 28 $14 +$5 +34%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner May 28 $136 +$112 +82%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff May 28 $17 +$15 +92%
Valorant: Pigeons vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: May 27 $82 +$212 +259%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 26 $30 −$1 -4%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner May 26 $54 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 25 $120 +$108 +90%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group May 24 $69 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $31 +$20 +64%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste May 22 $24 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 32¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 34¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 40¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 35¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg $0 4h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg $0 4h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner SELL Subtop De France 18¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner SELL Subtop De France 37¢ $32 7h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner BUY Subtop De France 26¢ $38 7h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America SELL Blitzkrieg 10¢ $33 7h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Blitzkrieg 13¢ $45 7h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner SELL Alliance Guardians 19¢ $1 24h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 55¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Game Hunters 42¢ $22 28h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 44¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 43¢ $18 29h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se SELL Vasco Esports 51¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 52¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 52¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $126 3d
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 72¢ $57 4d
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 71¢ $14 4d
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 71¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 100¢ $133 6d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 32¢ $43 6d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 43¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 43¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 41¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 180 history records