trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 62% | 12% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 62% | 12% | -9.4% |
| all | 27 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 48% | 7% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 7% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 54¢ | $49 | $52 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 06 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $102 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? | May 22 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 14? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 14 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Mar 13 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 11 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? | Mar 05 | $12 | $0 | -3% |
| Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo | Mar 04 | $16 | −$4 | -23% |
| Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | -3% |
| Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| LSU vs. Mississippi State | Mar 03 | $15 | +$2 | +14% |