Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aa6…99c7 crypto 64 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$198 (-17%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$204
14 days−$258
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$234
other 5% −$26
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -40.3% -46.0% 38% 8% -39.4%
≤30d 64 -40.8% -46.5% 34% 9% -29.1%
≤90d 64 -40.8% -46.5% 34% 9% -29.1%
all 64 -40.8% -46.5% 34% 9% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 9% -29.1%
10% -51.6% 6% -35.9%
15% -56.3% 6% -42.1%
20% -60.5% 6% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $87 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $70 +$121 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -62%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -87%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -41%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -70%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +294%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $87 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $191 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $70 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records