Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6aa3…10d9 politics 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$15
politics 40% −$196
crypto 6% −$2
sports 5% +$46
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +5.1% -4.9% 8% 6% -10.2%
all 125 +7.9% -2.3% 12% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 10% -10.0%
10% -11.7% 8% -18.6%
15% -20.2% 7% -26.5%
20% -28.0% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $313 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $264 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $233 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $998 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $182 −$182 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $287 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $269 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $280 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $432 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 14h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 15d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 31d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $271 31d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $271 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $279 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 340 history records