Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a9f…9ca6 world 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized +$0 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%30W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 28% +$10
other 27% −$18
world 23% +$2
culture 6% +$10
politics 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$9
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -64.7% -68.0% 0% 0% -53.9%
≤30d 5 -64.7% -68.0% 0% 0% -53.9%
≤90d 61 -64.3% -67.7% 15% 11% -40.7%
all 95 -26.3% -33.3% 32% 22% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 22% -9.7%
10% -39.7% 16% -18.3%
15% -45.5% 14% -26.2%
20% -50.8% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses30 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)95 / 114
History coverage132d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 24¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 +$6 +300%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $10 +$8 +84%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? Apr 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (February 8) Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 22? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 10 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3 +$6 +199%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 24? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 07 $9 +$13 +145%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$1 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 70¢ $2 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 28d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $1 28d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 81¢ $2 32d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 93¢ $3 32d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY Yes 95¢ $4 49d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 62¢ $2 52d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 20¢ $1 52d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 52d
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 60d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 63d
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 67d
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 67d
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.41 · official $21.41 (match) · 281 history records