Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6a9d…c97c sports 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%421W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$78
other 16% +$21
economics 2% $0
world 1% +$1
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +3.4% -6.5% 79% 49% +1.7%
≤30d 250 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 47% -8.1%
≤90d 335 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 50% -8.5%
all 715 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 35% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 28% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses421 / 294
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions23
Markets (closed)715 / 738
History coverage110d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 88¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Julia Riera 44¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+122%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Carole Monnet 42¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Remy Bertola 92¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 69¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) France 96¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Iraq 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 58¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-44%)
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Mathilde Lollia 75¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$8 +96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +27%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1 10m
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $2 14m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 18m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 92¢ $2 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 35m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 38m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 38m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $2 38m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $2 41m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 69¢ $2 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 50m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 52m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 58¢ $2 53m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 87¢ $2 59m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 91¢ $2 1h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 44¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 86¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 98¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 99¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 83¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 98¢ $2 1h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Mathilde Lollia 75¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 80¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 42¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $2 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 83¢ $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.84 · official $46.84 (match) · 1621 history records