Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a9d…4ff3 tech 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$57 (+15%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 55% $0
politics 25% −$1
other 11% +$57
sports 8% $0
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.5% +21.7% 40% 40% +28.2%
≤30d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 38% 25% +5.7%
≤90d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 38% 25% +5.7%
all 8 +21.5% +9.9% 38% 25% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 25% +5.7%
10% -0.6% 25% -4.4%
15% -10.2% 25% -13.7%
20% -19.0% 25% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$4 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.38 per $1 lost it wins $4.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage30d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? Jun 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $28 +$72 +257%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 24 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 16h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $67 15d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $47 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 29d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 29d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 29d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 29d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 30d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 30d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $74 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records