Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a9b…be73 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,256 (+7%) realized +$1,298 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,747per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$7,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$809
7 days+$809
14 days+$809
30 days+$809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$763
economics 13% −$218
crypto 12% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 100% +1.9%
≤30d 1 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 100% +1.9%
≤90d 1 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 100% +1.9%
all 10 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 20% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 20% -4.1%
10% -15.7% 10% -13.2%
15% -23.9% 0% -21.6%
20% -31.3% 0% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$57 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$7,199
Realized+$1,298
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage285d
Avg bet$1,747
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $7,241 $7,199 −$42 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6,427 +$809 +13%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Sep 22 $400 −$6 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 18? Sep 18 $1,644 +$67 +4%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 18 $200 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $1,483 −$39 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $993 −$179 -18%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 16? Sep 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16? Sep 16 $196 +$65 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 16 $200 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,250 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,008 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $7,236 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6,427 3d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $394 278d
Ethereum Up or Down on September 18? SELL Up 100¢ $1,711 282d
Ethereum Up or Down on September 18? BUY Up 96¢ $1,644 282d
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by September 30? SELL No 98¢ $201 282d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 83¢ $1,444 283d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 88¢ $1,016 283d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $815 283d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $201 283d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 80¢ $467 284d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 284d
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16? SELL Down 20¢ $261 284d
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16? BUY Down 15¢ $196 284d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? SELL No 87¢ $196 284d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $195 285d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 285d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 285d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 89¢ $178 285d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $598 285d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $400 285d
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 285d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $200 285d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 89¢ $200 285d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,198.51 · official $7,198.51 (match) · 35 history records