Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a99…e614 weather 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,825 (+16%) realized +$1,822 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 135L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,265
7 days+$1,423
14 days+$885
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$786
sports 33% +$1,994
other 7% −$512
crypto 5% −$502
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 28% +19.3%
≤30d 54 -37.6% -43.6% 19% 17% -3.0%
≤90d 162 -14.1% -22.3% 17% 16% -8.4%
all 162 -14.1% -22.3% 17% 16% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 16% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 16% -17.2%
15% -36.5% 15% -25.2%
20% -42.8% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$54 · ×6.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,822
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 135
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $201 +$257 +128%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $222 +$286 +129%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $87 +$117 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $325 −$325 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $971 +$940 +97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$200 +400%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $309 −$309 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $40 +$130 +325%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $122 +$11 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $297 −$4 -1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 +$307 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$415 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $251 +$627 +250%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$186 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $314 −$313 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $55 −$51 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $46 −$46 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $98 −$98 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $108 −$19 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $187 −$187 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 26? May 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 25? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $102 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 40¢ $104 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $97 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $222 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $87 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $92 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $233 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $485 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $99 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $194 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $19 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $24 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $88 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.08 · official $103.08 (match) · 3500 history records