trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video? | May 11 | $4 | +$4 | +92% |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30? | Sep 08 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: September | Sep 08 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? | Sep 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-60 million views on week 1? | Sep 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? | Sep 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? | Sep 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday? | Aug 17 | $101 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 16 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Aug 16 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? | Aug 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? | Aug 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Zelensky in Alaska by Sunday? | Aug 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -48.6% | -53.5% | 50% | 0% | -22.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -48.6% | -53.5% | 50% | 0% | -22.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 67% | 33% | +16.1% |
| all | 16 | -73.5% | -76.1% | 19% | 12% | -91.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -76.1% | 12% | -91.4% |
| 10% | -78.3% | 12% | -92.2% |
| 15% | -80.4% | 6% | -92.9% |
| 20% | -82.4% | 6% | -93.6% |