Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a97…83af other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 42% −$15
politics 10% $0
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 32 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -11.6%
10% -23.4% 0% -20.1%
15% -30.8% 0% -27.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage465d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 14 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $26 $0 +2%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Mar 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? Mar 16 $15 −$11 -76%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $29 2h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $38 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $14 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $25 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $39 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $20 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $19 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $43 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.56 (match) · 91 history records