Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a96…f7cd other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$12
other 25% −$25
sports 16% −$12
world 9% −$3
crypto 8% +$2
finance 4% +$4
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 120 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage100d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 17 $67 −$4 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $303 −$4 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $57 +$2 +4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $39 $0 +1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $57 −$4 -7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $57 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 59m
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $59 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 17h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 91¢ $63 17h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 96¢ $67 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 26h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 26h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 33h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $41 33h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 39h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $43 40h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $44 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $59 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $59 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.61 · official $52.61 (match) · 469 history records