Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a94…c35e crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$236 (-13%) realized −$228 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$294
14 days−$259
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$449
sports 20% +$274
world 19% −$93
other 19% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -29.0%
≤30d 40 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 50% -24.2%
≤90d 40 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 50% -24.2%
all 40 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 50% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 50% -24.2%
10% -17.8% 42% -31.4%
15% -25.7% 32% -38.0%
20% -33.0% 18% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage13d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Yes 48¢ 41¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $38 $46 +$7 (+19%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$69 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$12 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 +$153 +249%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$18 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $20 +$22 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 +$4 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $14 +$5 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $52 +$9 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $36 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $45 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 44¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.92 · official $208.92 (match) · 103 history records