Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a94…b59f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,438 (-29%) realized −$868 · open −$570
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$862
crypto 26% −$229
sports 22% −$31
economics 10% −$422
world 9% −$421
finance 4% +$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -26.1%
≤30d 12 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -26.1%
≤90d 12 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -26.1%
all 27 -46.3% -51.4% 26% 26% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 26% -37.1%
10% -56.0% 22% -43.1%
15% -60.3% 22% -48.6%
20% -64.2% 19% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$113 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$962
Realized−$868
Unrealized−$570
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage240d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $650 $425 −$225 (-35%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance Portugal 69¢ 68¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ $99 $37 −$62 (-62%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ $183 $14 −$169 (-92%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $231 −$26 -11%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$11 +22%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $51 +$25 +50%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$72 +142%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 31? Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $200 +$399 +200%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Dec 17 $510 −$510 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 12? Nov 07 $525 −$525 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 8? Nov 04 $510 +$561 +110%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Nov 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 02 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 2? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 1? Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance BUY Portugal 69¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 28h
Portugal to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 28h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $27 28h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $62 29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 79¢ $76 29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $317 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 2d
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $153 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $51 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 3d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $123 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $11 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $51 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $51 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes $105 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $183 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $200 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $11 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.96 · official $961.96 (match) · 357 history records