Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6a8a…4972 crypto 2135 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$191 (+3%) realized +$194 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%1029W / 666L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$225
14 days+$497
30 days+$733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$652
other 16% +$128
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 +27.7% +15.5% 67% 67% +19.3%
≤30d 1334 +19.4% +8.0% 63% 63% +6.6%
≤90d 1695 +15.5% +4.5% 61% 60% +3.6%
all 1695 +15.5% +4.5% 61% 60% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 60% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 60% -6.3%
15% -14.7% 60% -15.3%
20% -23.0% 60% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1029 / 666
Open positions117
Markets (closed)1695 / 2135
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 117 History 1695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 383 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.49 · official $115.71 · 3464 history records