Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6A 0x6a89…24b1 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$265 (+8%) realized +$266 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate86%12W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$224per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+3.8%	-6.1%	86%	50%	-8.8%
≤30d	14	+3.8%	-6.1%	86%	50%	-8.8%
≤90d	14	+3.8%	-6.1%	86%	50%	-8.8%
all	14	+3.8%	-6.1%	86%	50%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.1%	50%	-8.8%
10%	-15.1%	14%	-17.5%
15%	-23.3%	14%	-25.5%
20%	-30.8%	0%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

42% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$168 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$214

Realized+$266

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses12 / 2

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage4d

Avg bet$224

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	80¢	80¢	$216	$214	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$212	+$4	+2%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$351	−$138	-39%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$330	+$22	+6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$295	+$35	+12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$91	+$4	+5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$245	+$45	+18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$440	+$50	+11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$140	+$55	+40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$96	+$44	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$199	−$198	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$170	+$29	+17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$279	+$45	+16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$114	+$11	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$188	+$18	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$217	55m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	98¢	$212	1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	SELL Yes	85¢	$211	1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	71¢	$351	1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	94¢	$330	4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$329	4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$295	7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$95	7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	95¢	$91	7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$290	7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	84¢	$245	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	100¢	$245	29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$245	29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	79¢	$195	32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$195	32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$140	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$96	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$199	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$199	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$170	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$155	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$155	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$124	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$125	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$114	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	81¢	$93	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	82¢	$92	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	84¢	$95	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.31 · official $214.31 (match) · 35 history records