Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a84…8094 weather 825 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-6%) realized −$138 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%174W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days−$75
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$145
other 13% +$84
sports 11% −$21
crypto 2% −$26
world 2% −$36
finance 1% +$4
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -2.4% -11.7% 19% 19% -4.1%
≤30d 240 -5.1% -14.2% 18% 17% -21.7%
≤90d 627 -7.8% -16.6% 21% 20% -17.4%
all 814 -5.9% -14.9% 21% 19% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 19% -16.0%
10% -23.0% 19% -24.0%
15% -30.4% 18% -31.3%
20% -37.3% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses174 / 640
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)814 / 825
History coverage158d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 814 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 79¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+128%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 45¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +482%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +321%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$7 +633%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$15 +1439%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $52.35 (match) · 2940 history records