Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a84…43cb sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$624 (+16%) realized +$624 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days+$447
14 days+$477
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$293
other 23% +$209
politics 5% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +20.6% +9.1% 59% 49% +2.1%
≤30d 40 +35.9% +23.0% 60% 50% +3.4%
≤90d 40 +35.9% +23.0% 60% 50% +3.4%
all 41 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 51% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 51% +5.6%
10% +11.7% 46% -4.5%
15% +0.9% 39% -13.7%
20% -9.0% 34% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$27 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage592d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $702 +$87 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $160 +$15 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $501 +$25 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $59 +$5 +9%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$12 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$12 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $591 +$30 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$19 +32%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +249%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$22 +73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$73 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$64 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$77 +137%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$41 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -64%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$30 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $199 +$120 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 21m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 29m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $789 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $702 23h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $176 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $526 24h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 91¢ $160 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $64 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $48 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $36 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $59 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $36 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $620 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $591 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $29 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.03 · official $199.95 (match) · 77 history records