Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6a83…4c59 world 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$153,214 (+49%) realized +$154,076 · open −$862
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%101W / 52L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,951per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,719
7 days+$15,250
14 days+$11,606
30 days+$9,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$99,436
other 4% +$2,006
sports 1% +$55
finance 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +38.1% +24.9% 75% 67% +77.6%
≤30d 39 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 41% +5.2%
≤90d 62 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 40% +3.8%
all 153 +51.5% +37.1% 66% 54% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.1% 54% +21.3%
10% +24.0% 42% +9.7%
15% ← realistic here +12.0% 36% -0.9%
20% +1.0% 29% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,642) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +77% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,164 vs −$284 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.12 per $1 lost it wins $8.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$8,563
Realized+$154,076
Unrealized−$862
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses101 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions10
Markets (closed)153 / 160
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$1,951
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $3,297 $3,544 +$247 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $2,700 $3,311 +$612 (+23%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 43¢ 14¢ $2,266 $737 −$1,529 (-67%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $562 $425 −$137 (-24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $181 $193 +$12 (+7%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 70¢ 56¢ $221 $177 −$44 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 11¢ 16¢ $56 $86 +$31 (+55%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $38 $5 −$32 (-86%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 18 $17 +$811 +4723%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5,669 +$8,801 +155%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $709 −$709 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,986 +$558 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $430 +$143 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $86 +$125 +144%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,211 +$5,880 +183%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $267 +$20 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $74 +$56 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $484 +$78 +16%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $124 −$122 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $259 +$34 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $170 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $1,437 −$974 -68%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 08 $428 +$61 +14%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 08 $300 −$71 -24%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $153 −$119 -77%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$4 +12%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 08 $10 $0 -5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $617 −$231 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13,462 −$692 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$25 +150%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $495 −$457 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$7 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $3,119 −$479 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,777 −$545 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,653 −$165 -6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,608 −$2,607 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $451 −$63 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $270 −$191 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $105 −$105 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $218 +$210 +96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $468 +$386 +82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $640 −$262 -41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $2,806 +$166 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $8,709 −$801 -9%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $600 +$80 +13%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $212 +$76 +36%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Wizards vs. Lakers Apr 08 $121 −$121 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $177 −$48 -27%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31? Apr 08 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 08 $142 +$110 +77%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $3,700 +$1,845 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $16,859 +$6,388 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $495 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $38 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $38 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $73 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $43 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $41 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $62 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $52 7h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 92¢ $22 7h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $242 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $406 7h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $0 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $3 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $185 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $279 9h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 65¢ $6 9h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 70¢ $214 9h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY No 63¢ $15 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $231 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $214 9h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $159 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,562.55 · official $8,566.20 (match) · 3500 history records