Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a81…41c7
crypto · 520 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$439 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$441 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$126
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses233 / 253
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)486 / 520
History coverage194d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 34 History 486 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+61%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +130%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -55%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Trump goes to space in 2026? May 28 $1 +$1 +110%
DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 24 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 22 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 22 $21 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$430
other 3% +$4
tech 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 12h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 12h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 12h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 13h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 14h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.6% -38.1% 19% 12% -33.9%
≤30d 82 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 41% -22.8%
≤90d 156 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 38% -21.0%
all 486 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 41% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 41% -17.4%
10% -23.8% 31% -25.3%
15% -31.1% 25% -32.5%
20% -37.9% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.57 · official $125.57 (match) · 1997 history records