Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a80…d472 sports 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$538 (+8%) realized +$680 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%76W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day59.1pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +6.5% -3.6% 46% 46% +0.9%
≤30d 167 +6.5% -3.6% 46% 46% +0.9%
≤90d 167 +6.5% -3.6% 46% 46% +0.9%
all 167 +6.5% -3.6% 46% 46% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 46% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 44% -8.8%
15% -21.3% 42% -17.6%
20% -29.0% 39% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$24 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,648
Realized+$680
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses76 / 91
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions43
Markets (closed)167 / 210
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 44¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Gustavo Heide 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 31¢ 34¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+11%)
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Joaquin Aguilar 45¢ 43¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Petr Brunclik 68¢ 72¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Elina Svitolina 78¢ 81¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ 52¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Alex de Minaur 76¢ 78¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Ekaterina Alexandrova 16¢ 20¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Daniel Jade 53¢ 54¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 61¢ 62¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jurij Rodionov 48¢ 48¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jenson Brooksby 37¢ 36¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 86¢ 84¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 29¢ 28¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 59¢ 57¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Mia Ristic 55¢ 54¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Barbora Palicova 20¢ 20¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Ekaterine Gorgodze 20¢ 18¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Kilian Feldbausch 79¢ 74¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Martin Krumich 46¢ 44¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Ryan Seggerman 20¢ 16¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 49¢ 46¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Katarina Kuzmova 37¢ 34¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 33¢ 30¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $96 −$16 -16%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $51 −$9 -17%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $36 +$67 +188%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $41 +$55 +134%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $35 +$29 +83%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $35 +$12 +34%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $35 +$14 +40%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $36 +$94 +262%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $36 +$32 +90%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $35 +$24 +67%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $36 +$110 +307%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $36 +$44 +124%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $36 +$100 +279%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $41 +$52 +129%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $35 +$22 +62%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $35 +$26 +73%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $36 +$52 +146%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $38 +$65 +172%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $36 +$197 +550%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $36 +$57 +161%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $23 +$49 +215%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $31 +$25 +83%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $31 +$27 +88%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $36 +$39 +109%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $35 +$27 +76%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $35 +$25 +70%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $36 +$73 +204%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $35 +$25 +70%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $41 +$38 +94%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $18 +$15 +84%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $36 +$4 +12%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $36 +$54 +152%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $36 +$50 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 42¢ $22 13m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Joaquin Aguilar 45¢ $51 19m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $51 19m
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 65¢ $26 24m
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 60¢ $51 49m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 20¢ $51 49m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Terence Atmane 17¢ $45 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 18¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Terence Atmane 17¢ $36 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 20¢ $42 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 23¢ $51 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 29¢ $29 4h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 22¢ $45 4h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 20¢ $45 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $29 5h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 86¢ $44 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $44 5h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 20¢ $45 5h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Martin Krumich 46¢ $45 6h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $45 10h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 55¢ $45 11h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ $45 14h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 33¢ $45 14h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 43¢ $36 14h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 37¢ $45 14h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 52¢ $43 14h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 29¢ $45 15h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $45 15h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 68¢ $44 15h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 45¢ $45 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,647.60 · official $1,647.65 (match) · 308 history records