Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a7f…0492 sports 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$501 (+4%) realized +$433 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%151W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days+$14
14 days+$272
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$747
other 22% −$500
crypto 3% −$59
world 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 31% -9.0%
≤30d 273 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 32% -7.6%
≤90d 511 -9.8% -18.4% 30% 29% -8.4%
all 511 -9.8% -18.4% 30% 29% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 29% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 29% -17.2%
15% -33.3% 28% -25.2%
20% -39.9% 27% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$22 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$433
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses151 / 360
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 513
History coverage56d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 78¢ $69 $137 +$68 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $24 −$12 -49%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $28 +$28 +98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $19 +$22 +116%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $89 +$178 +200%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $19 −$10 -55%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +84%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $38 +$50 +133%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 +$287 +464%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $11 +$20 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +114%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $121 +$132 +109%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$15 +132%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $64 +$96 +151%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $36 +$55 +155%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 48m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 49m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 51m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $26 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 SELL 21¢ $12 5h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $56 6h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 40¢ $6 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 40¢ $4 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 40¢ $14 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 37¢ $3 8h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 52¢ $3 8h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 49¢ $20 8h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 35¢ $3 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 10¢ $3 8h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $42 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 35¢ $3 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 18¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 15¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.53 · official $140.94 · 2363 history records