Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a7e…5af2 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-39%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$24
crypto 17% −$7
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -56.9%
≤30d 16 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -56.9%
≤90d 16 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -56.9%
all 16 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 25% -56.9%
10% -70.2% 12% -61.1%
15% -73.1% 12% -64.8%
20% -75.8% 6% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bryan Reynolds: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 50m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21h
Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 21h
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $10 21h
Bryan Reynolds: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 21h
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 39h
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records