Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a7a…e7ac world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$9
sports 25% −$14
other 21% +$1
politics 8% +$1
finance 3% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 45% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 43 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 2% -9.7%
all 51 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage525d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $107 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $220 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $117 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $31 −$3 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $65 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $83 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $239 −$4 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $562 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $262 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $260 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray beat AZ Alkmaar? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will there be less than 100k jobs added in January 2025? Feb 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win Best Foreign Language Film in the 2025 Critics Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Magic Feb 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown? Feb 02 $1 +$6 +400%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 24 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.00 (match) · 213 history records