Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a73…0717 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
other 36% +$3
sports 7% +$1
politics 7% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 7% -9.6%
all 46 +1.2% -8.5% 46% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $14 +$3 +25%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 07 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $3 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $19 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on March 28? Mar 29 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $18 $0 +1%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 15 $16 +$2 +11%
Wild vs. Kraken Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $40 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 133 history records