Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a71…78c9 weather 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$415 (+2%) realized +$390 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate64%92W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$474
14 days+$493
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 46% +$796
world 14% −$549
sports 13% +$464
other 11% −$77
finance 9% +$12
economics 4% −$148
weather 3% +$18
culture 0% +$30
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 47% +2.5%
≤30d 26 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 46% -1.1%
≤90d 104 -13.5% -21.7% 64% 34% -4.3%
all 143 -10.7% -19.2% 64% 30% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 30% -5.9%
10% -26.9% 16% -14.9%
15% -34.0% 8% -23.1%
20% -40.5% 5% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$2,953
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses92 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions12
Markets (closed)143 / 155
History coverage156d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 79¢ 90¢ $475 $538 +$63 (+13%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 51¢ 84¢ $306 $507 +$201 (+66%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $456 $467 +$11 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $420 $457 +$37 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $272 $273 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $194 $200 +$6 (+3%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 63¢ 50¢ $188 $149 −$39 (-21%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 50¢ $106 $101 −$5 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $79 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 83¢ 89¢ $64 $68 +$5 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 60¢ 11¢ $302 $53 −$249 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $249 −$180 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $343 +$157 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $279 +$121 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $74 −$72 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 +$94 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $170 −$13 -8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$153 -77%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $930 +$776 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $233 +$125 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 15 $240 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $200 +$26 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $224 −$224 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $384 +$116 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $813 +$87 +11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $591 −$431 -73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $280 +$278 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $150 −$101 -68%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 09 $232 −$68 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $196 +$224 +114%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $228 −$148 -65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 08 $132 +$14 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Jun 08 $136 +$14 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 08 $337 +$35 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C or higher on April 10? Apr 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 74°F or higher on April 10? Apr 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 9? Apr 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April Apr 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April Apr 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on April 9? Apr 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 17 $100 −$92 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 9? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April Apr 07 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 6? Apr 07 $7 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on April 4? Apr 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 05 $400 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 3? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $550 +$13 +2%
Will London have 70mm or more of precipitation in March? Apr 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 01 $400 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 26? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 26? Mar 30 $5 +$6 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26? Mar 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 23¢ $27 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 23¢ $38 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $310 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $267 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 14h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY No 53¢ $51 20h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $12 21h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $52 21h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY No 53¢ $56 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 25h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 50¢ $3 25h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 50¢ $3 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $343 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $266 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $467 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $279 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 79¢ $150 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 79¢ $139 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 79¢ $170 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 79¢ $7 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 63¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,953.00 · official $2,953.00 (match) · 591 history records