Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a6f…b568 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
politics 34% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage130d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $97 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 28 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 22 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $95 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $95 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $96 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $96 15d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $96 24d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $96 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 29d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 33d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 34d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 39d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 40d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 41d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $96 42d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 44d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 46d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 47d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 50d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 50d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $97 73d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $97 74d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 76d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 76d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 79d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $97 79d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records