Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a6d…4448 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148 (-11%) realized −$145 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$156
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$51
sports 27% −$73
crypto 22% −$126
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 38% -17.8%
≤30d 43 +13.8% +3.0% 49% 40% -17.0%
≤90d 44 +14.1% +3.3% 50% 41% -16.7%
all 46 +19.0% +7.7% 50% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 41% -16.9%
10% -2.6% 35% -24.8%
15% -12.0% 24% -32.1%
20% -20.6% 20% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions14
Markets (closed)46 / 60
History coverage315d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-47%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $41 −$8 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $88 +$16 +18%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$10 -42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$53 -67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$17 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $29 −$2 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$58 +475%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +465%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $4 +$16 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 44¢ $6 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 44¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $107 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 44¢ $16 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $41 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $83 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $37 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 21h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 30¢ $7 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 42¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 28h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 45h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 45h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $50 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 92¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.97 · official $84.97 (match) · 143 history records