Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6a6a…4a4b crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$17
other 16% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -31.4% -37.9% 39% 39% +2.1%
≤30d 28 -31.4% -37.9% 39% 39% +2.1%
≤90d 28 -31.4% -37.9% 39% 39% +2.1%
all 28 -31.4% -37.9% 39% 39% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 39% +2.1%
10% -43.8% 39% -7.7%
15% -49.3% 36% -16.6%
20% -54.2% 32% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Down 41¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $78 +$51 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $55 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$30 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$15 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $129 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $19 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.45 (match) · 42 history records