Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6A 0x6a6a…e09b other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$569 (+39%) realized +$511 · open +$58

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+0.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+10.7%	+0.2%	64%	64%	+28.0%
≤30d	11	+10.7%	+0.2%	64%	64%	+28.0%
≤90d	11	+10.7%	+0.2%	64%	64%	+28.0%
all	11	+10.7%	+0.2%	64%	64%	+28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.2%	64%	+28.0%
10%	-9.4%	64%	+15.8%
15%	-18.1%	64%	+4.6%
20%	-26.2%	45%	-5.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$108 vs −$50 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized+$511

Unrealized+$58

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage7d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros	46¢	72¢	$100	$158	+$58 (+58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$136	+134%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$202	+$92	+46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$429	+$214	+50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$65	+65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$152	+$160	+105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$55	+55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	Jun 17	$51	+$33	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Houston Astros	46¢	$102	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$238	19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	23h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Houston Astros	46¢	$51	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$294	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros	BUY Houston Astros	7¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$643	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$429	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$152	4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	BUY Houston Astros	60¢	$51	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.61 · official $157.61 (match) · 19 history records