trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $840 | −$206 | -24% |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,000 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $400 | +$200 | +50% |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $89 | +$7 | +8% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $2,921 | +$315 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $22,473 | +$2,057 | +9% |
| Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 10 | $1,430 | +$413 | +29% |
| World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo | Jun 10 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1,208 | +$29 | +2% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Jun 09 | $106 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $5,524 | +$886 | +16% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $755 | −$117 | -16% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 31 | $44,991 | +$14,412 | +32% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 31 | $2,770 | −$2,050 | -74% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 31 | $21,479 | −$961 | -4% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 30 | $5,700 | +$100 | +2% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $470 | +$63 | +13% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 30 | $65 | +$35 | +55% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $570 | +$19 | +3% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $10,447 | −$6,724 | -64% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $16,391 | +$2,587 | +16% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $7,886 | +$3,622 | +46% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 24 | $2,430 | +$117 | +5% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 24 | $2,957 | +$9 | +0% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 24 | $1,481 | +$471 | +32% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $7,733 | +$1,121 | +14% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $10,755 | +$1,603 | +15% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +9.4% | -1.1% | 73% | 36% | -0.2% |
| ≤30d | 27 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 74% | 44% | -0.1% |
| ≤90d | 27 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 74% | 44% | -0.1% |
| all | 27 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 74% | 44% | -0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -3.6% | 44% | -0.1% |
| 10% | -12.8% | 22% | -9.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -21.2% | 11% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 4% | -26.4% |