Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a67…8893 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$521 (-25%) realized −$680 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$495
other 6% +$14
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -46.4%
≤30d 12 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -46.4%
≤90d 12 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -46.4%
all 12 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 33% -46.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 33% -51.5%
15% -44.4% 33% -56.2%
20% -49.8% 33% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$142 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$680
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ 80¢ $192 $321 +$130 (+68%)
U.S. Open: First Time Winner? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $51 +$143 +281%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $299 −$294 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $121 +$80 +66%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair Jun 18 $152 +$88 +58%
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $198 −$196 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $166 +$164 +99%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $213 −$210 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ $195 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 100¢ $195 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 46¢ $299 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 26¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa 28¢ $61 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina SELL Junhan Zhang 100¢ $201 5h
U.S. Open: First Time Winner? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Junhan Zhang 60¢ $121 5h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair SELL Naoki Nakagawa 99¢ $239 5h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair BUY Naoki Nakagawa 62¢ $152 5h
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Duckhee Lee 29¢ $143 6h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 57¢ $198 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $133 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $331 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $166 19h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 36¢ $82 19h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 45¢ $5 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $57 19h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 19h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 51¢ $213 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.52 · official $556.52 (match) · 23 history records