Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a63…b752 sports 655 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$799 (-2%) realized −$799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%260W / 395L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,097
other 21% −$1,791
crypto 1% −$142
world 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 36% -37.2%
≤30d 12 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 33% -56.5%
≤90d 12 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 33% -56.5%
all 655 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 38% -11.3%
10% -21.3% 38% -19.8%
15% -28.9% 37% -27.6%
20% -35.9% 36% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$44 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses260 / 395
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)655 / 655
History coverage188d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 655 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $21 +$25 +120%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $11 +$23 +206%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14 +$9 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $4 +$3 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Capitals vs. Flames Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Montpellier HSC vs. USL Dunkerque end in a draw? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? Mar 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-01? Mar 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Utah vs. Panthers Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Boston College Eagles Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Arlington Baptist Patriots vs. Baylor Bears Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? Mar 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Islanders vs. Blues Mar 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Mar 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Connecticut vs. Army Mar 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexican Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Sho Shimabukuro Mar 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Houston Cougars Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Mar 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Senators vs. Penguins Mar 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Mar 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Wild vs. Sabres Mar 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jaume Munar Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-10? Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Mar 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $45 −$45 -100%
ASB Classic: Fabian Marozsan vs Casper Ruud Mar 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Tarleton State Texans Mar 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Suns vs. Cavaliers Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Mar 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 32¢ $11 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $23 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 45h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 16d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Capitals 56¢ $26 109d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 109d
Islanders vs. Blues BUY Blues 47¢ $33 109d
Kings vs. Bruins SELL Bruins 100¢ $59 109d
Kings vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 60¢ $35 110d
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1916 history records