trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $52 | $52 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $43 | +$5 | +12% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president | Apr 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 14 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Circle IPO in 2025? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Apr 13 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? | Mar 03 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Georgia vs. South Carolina | Mar 03 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4? | Mar 03 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 60% | 20% | -7.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 60% | 20% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 60% | 20% | -7.1% |
| all | 18 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 56% | 6% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.4% | 6% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -26.2% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -39.9% | 0% | -34.0% |