Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a63…bbb9 politics 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 2% −$29
sports 1% −$30
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 7 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 57% +5.5%
≤90d 11 +4.7% -5.3% 82% 55% -9.4%
all 31 -15.7% -23.7% 55% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 42% -10.6%
10% -31.0% 32% -19.2%
15% -37.7% 23% -27.0%
20% -43.8% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage444d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 08 $12 +$4 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $15 +$2 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 25 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $2,974 −$3 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 24 $14 +$5 +38%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $13 +$4 +27%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 26 $13 +$10 +76%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-01-17? Jan 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 05 $12 +$4 +29%
US Lecce vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Dec 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 23 $13 +$5 +37%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19 Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? Dec 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dillon Danis x Gorilla fight scheduled by next Friday? Dec 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the n Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 20 $3 +$4 +150%
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? May 02 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 22? Apr 28 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Apr 16 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 74¢ $12 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 89¢ $15 12d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,971 30d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,974 30d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 99¢ $20 53d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 72¢ $14 68d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 79¢ $13 68d
Sabres vs. Senators BUY Sabres 49¢ $11 75d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 67¢ $2 94d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,483 104d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,486 104d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 55¢ $14 115d
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 142d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-01-17? BUY No 76¢ $12 149d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $12 167d
US Lecce vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $13 173d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 73¢ $13 181d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 64¢ $13 181d
Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 395d
Dillon Danis x Gorilla fight scheduled by next Friday? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 405d
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 BUY Yes 4¢ $10 405d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A BUY Yes 2¢ $10 406d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? BUY No 40¢ $3 419d
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 419d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the n BUY No 47¢ $2 420d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records