Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a5d…2f9a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+11%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$42
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$58
other 18% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 54% -23.8%
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 56% -21.8%
≤90d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 56% -21.8%
all 18 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 56% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 56% -21.8%
10% -17.6% 50% -29.3%
15% -25.6% 44% -36.2%
20% -32.9% 33% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $37 +$4 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 +$18 +112%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $8 +$8 +95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$27 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 +$10 +59%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$4 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers $1 32m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $12 47m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $61 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $42 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 89¢ $37 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 97¢ $5 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 78¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $33 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $16 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $16 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $8 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $28 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $24 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $25 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 95¢ $27 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $17 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $9 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $8 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $8 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $4 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $4 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records