Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a5b…0c65 world 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-8%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$4
other 18% $0
culture 16% −$12
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 17% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -11.8%
all 16 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 0% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -16.6%
10% -30.8% 0% -24.6%
15% -37.5% 0% -31.9%
20% -43.6% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage470d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 −$2 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "I'm Not a Robot" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $32 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $10 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $27 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $28 7d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 181d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $1 353d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 367d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 386d
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $1 419d
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? BUY Yes $0 423d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 433d
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? SELL No $4 471d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records