Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a59…e605 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,563 (+18%) realized +$1,269 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days+$487
14 days+$733
30 days+$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$325
crypto 33% −$133
other 18% +$310
world 13% +$444
politics 0% −$22
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.9% -33.8% 46% 46% +11.5%
≤30d 49 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 45% +2.3%
≤90d 49 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 45% +2.3%
all 49 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 45% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 45% +2.3%
10% -33.3% 43% -7.5%
15% -39.7% 41% -16.4%
20% -45.6% 31% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$42 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,718
Realized+$1,269
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions19
Markets (closed)49 / 68
History coverage33d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $509 $556 +$47 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 44¢ 71¢ $319 $511 +$192 (+60%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 94¢ $187 $248 +$61 (+33%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $204 $220 +$16 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 14¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 34¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+131%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-58%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Over 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+118%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$13 +63%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$40 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $609 +$291 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $67 −$52 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $138 +$108 +78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $193 +$96 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $177 +$72 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $194 +$76 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $133 +$77 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $74 +$76 +103%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 +$10 +9%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $109 +$105 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$13 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$8 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Spirit qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 01 $23 −$22 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,605 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 27 $129 −$72 -56%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 27 $416 −$416 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $809 +$360 +44%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $152 +$128 +84%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $502 +$64 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 33¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $8 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 20h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 58¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $14 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.