Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6A 0x6a58…de37 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day232.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-26.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-19.0%	-26.8%	38%	12%	-5.0%
≤30d	8	-19.0%	-26.8%	38%	12%	-5.0%
≤90d	8	-19.0%	-26.8%	38%	12%	-5.0%
all	8	-19.0%	-26.8%	38%	12%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover232.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.8%	12%	-5.0%
10% ← realistic here	-33.8%	12%	-14.1%
15%	-40.2%	12%	-22.4%
20%	-46.0%	0%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$2 · ×8.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.87 per $1 lost it wins $4.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$117

Realized+$8

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)8 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day232.0

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	85¢	85¢	$80	$80	−$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	97¢	97¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$392	+$36	+9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$67	−$5	-8%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$81	+$2	+3%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$6	−$1	-13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$150	−$3	-2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$78	$0	-1%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$22	+$10	+47%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$2	$0	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	18m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	97¢	$35	34m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$20	40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$20	40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$20	40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$20	40m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	92¢	$12	50m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	SELL Yes	83¢	$45	50m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	9¢	$6	50m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	SELL No	16¢	$7	50m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	7¢	$6	50m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	91¢	$150	50m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	53¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	53¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	54¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	57¢	$4	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	58¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	59¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	59¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.83 · official $116.83 (match) · 274 history records