Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a57…9e28 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$76
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$74
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$4
sports 22% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 43% -15.7%
≤30d 29 -10.4% -19.0% 48% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 29 -10.4% -19.0% 48% 48% -8.9%
all 29 -10.4% -19.0% 48% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 48% -8.9%
10% -26.7% 34% -17.6%
15% -33.8% 31% -25.6%
20% -40.3% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$36 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 30¢ 76¢ $50 $126 +$76 (+152%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$65 +128%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$25 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 −$32 -89%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 −$13 -52%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$11 -42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$44 -88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +118%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $553 +$118 +21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$63 +156%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$26 +47%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 −$67 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $96 +$42 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 39m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $36 3d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $12 3d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 4d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.83 · official $125.83 (match) · 60 history records