Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a56…cfe8 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+8%) realized +$84 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$47
14 days+$57
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$5
sports 41% +$158
other 6% −$9
world 2% −$14
culture 1% −$5
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 38% +5.9%
≤30d 70 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 37% +5.0%
≤90d 73 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 40% +9.8%
all 73 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 40% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 40% +9.8%
10% -20.8% 40% -0.7%
15% -28.4% 40% -10.3%
20% -35.5% 36% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)73 / 82
History coverage37d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+359%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Camilo Ugo Carabelli 32¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jasmine Paolini 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will Raven Johnson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? Yes 31¢ 1¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$52 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$45 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$8 +159%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $4 +$5 +124%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $39 +$79 +204%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $7 +$8 +119%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +121%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $7 +$14 +192%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Cabinet meeting? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $78 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $41 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 32¢ $7 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Brandon Nakashima 53¢ $6 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Jasmine Paolini 49¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 6d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 33¢ $5 6d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 44¢ $4 8d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 26¢ $6 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.55 · official $82.40 (match) · 162 history records