Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a52…c585 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$7 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$7
sports 19% +$26
other 18% +$2
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +205.9% +176.7% 43% 43% +146.0%
≤30d 14 +205.9% +176.7% 43% 43% +146.0%
≤90d 39 +57.2% +42.2% 49% 33% +19.5%
all 39 +57.2% +42.2% 49% 33% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.2% 33% +19.5%
10% +28.6% 23% +8.1%
15% +16.2% 21% -2.4%
20% +4.8% 21% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +131% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 47
History coverage58d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $1 +$22 +2161%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 53m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo V BUY 4¢ $2 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win o BUY 3¢ $2 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win o BUY 3¢ $2 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 9¢ $3 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 4¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 83 history records