Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a4c…df05 world 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$85 (+3%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$32
other 11% +$32
sports 10% +$12
politics 8% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
weather 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 31 -1.7% -11.0% 32% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 34 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 0% -10.5%
all 67 +13.8% +3.0% 48% 19% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 19% -6.7%
10% -6.9% 19% -15.7%
15% -15.9% 15% -23.8%
20% -24.1% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage529d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $58 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $36 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $280 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $48 −$15 -31%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $255 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Big Balls removed from DOGE in February? Mar 20 $118 +$1 +0%
Maine vs. New Hampshire Feb 28 $97 −$97 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 27 $209 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Feb 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Feb 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will "Anora" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards? Feb 22 $157 +$52 +33%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 17 $5 $0 -5%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Bucknell vs. Lafayette Feb 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Colgate vs. Boston Univ. Feb 16 $20 +$20 +100%
St. Joseph's vs. George Mason Feb 16 $34 +$75 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 11m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $28 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $28 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $3 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $26 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $25 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records