Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a4a…73d2 other 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,660 (+18%) realized +$1,175 · open +$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%39W / 69L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,075now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1,675
sports 17% +$355
tech 7% +$14
other 7% −$292
politics 2% −$78
culture 2% +$28
weather 2% −$43
economics 1% −$19
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 33% 33% +63.1%
≤90d 8 -16.1% -24.1% 25% 25% -29.1%
all 108 -24.2% -31.4% 36% 35% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 35% +4.1%
10% -38.0% 30% -5.8%
15% -44.0% 24% -14.9%
20% -49.5% 17% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$18 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$2,075
Realized+$1,175
Unrealized+$485
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)108 / 112
History coverage592d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $1,502 $1,992 +$489 (+33%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 66¢ 66¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 56¢ 66¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $137 +$75 +54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $96 −$68 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Mar 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $12 +$14 +119%
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026? Feb 05 $80 +$10 +12%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $52 +$39 +74%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jan 30 $46 +$6 +12%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $20 +$60 +300%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $60 +$67 +111%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $94 +$34 +36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 23 $51 +$9 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 05 $187 +$37 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $40 −$2 -6%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Jan 03 $50 +$64 +128%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $1,952 +$468 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 31 $77 +$29 +37%
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on Decembe Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Dec 22 $15 $0 -0%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 21 $30 +$137 +456%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $100 +$49 +49%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on Au Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on August 4? Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 2? Nov 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8? Nov 16 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on Au Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on Aug Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ukraine vs. France end in a draw? Nov 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Au Nov 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Nov 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $15 28m
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 66¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 5¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $30 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 12d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Artur Minev 38¢ $102 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 41d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 65¢ $17 46d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 64¢ $86 46d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $103 46d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 64¢ $34 46d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No 1¢ $1 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No 29¢ $26 72d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $23 86d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $20 86d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 86d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 39¢ $20 106d
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 139d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Strickland 46¢ $12 142d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Volkanovski 59¢ $12 142d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Volkanovski 57¢ $40 144d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $51 144d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 148d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute SELL Yes 100¢ $80 149d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute BUY Yes 18¢ $10 150d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute BUY Yes 25¢ $20 150d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute BUY Yes 31¢ $30 150d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $60 150d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY OMalley 66¢ $26 150d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) SELL Yadong 34¢ $26 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,075.32 · official $2,075.32 (match) · 459 history records