Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6a4a…17d5 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-0%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$18
politics 33% −$14
sports 6% −$63
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 2% -9.9%
all 128 -6.8% -15.7% 8% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 5% -9.8%
10% -23.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -31.1% 4% -26.3%
20% -37.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage116d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $408 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $327 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $428 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $251 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $201 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $356 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $449 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $465 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $423 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 8h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $179 24d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $179 25d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $181 25d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $181 26d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $182 26d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $182 27d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 380 history records