Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a47…3f7b crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$486 (-9%) realized −$441 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$1,258
sports 10% +$389
economics 7% +$333
other 5% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 55% -18.6%
10% -11.5% 45% -26.4%
15% -20.0% 45% -33.5%
20% -27.9% 36% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$503 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage217d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 6? Dec 05 $442 −$442 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $132 +$311 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 4? Dec 04 $88 +$44 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? Dec 03 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? Dec 03 $501 −$501 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $610 −$610 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 30? Dec 01 $500 +$110 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11AM ET Nov 30 $558 −$558 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 29? Nov 29 $717 +$841 +117%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 29 $383 +$333 +87%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $495 +$389 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $442 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $442 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? BUY No 30¢ $132 197d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 4? BUY Up 67¢ $88 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? BUY Down 11¢ $402 199d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? BUY Yes 30¢ $501 199d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $610 201d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $558 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 30? BUY Up 82¢ $500 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 29? SELL Up 85¢ $1,558 203d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 29? BUY Up 39¢ $717 203d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 86¢ $716 203d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 46¢ $383 215d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Shevchenko 56¢ $495 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.21 · official $270.21 (match) · 24 history records